Kommersant, Novye Izvestia

First energy war of 2010 breaks out between Russia and Belarus

A Russian-Belarusian conflict over oil supplies, which began in December 2009, has grown in the first days of 2010.

A new round of talks ended in failure last weekend, and Moscow threatened an end to oil deliveries on preferential terms. In response, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Belarus would withdraw from the Customs Union, where the other two members are Russia and Kazakhstan, if Russia continued to pressure it.

Analysts doubt that oil duties are the real reason for the conflict.

Yaraslau Ramanchuk, president of the Mises Research Center (Belarus), said the real reason is that Russian oil majors Rosneft and LUKoil want to take part in the privatization of the Naftan Polymer and Mozyr oil refineries in Belarus.

"Russia could prolong the current preferential terms for oil supply if Belarus allows Russian companies to take part in the privatization of its petrochemical

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