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a 1993 Nobel Prize winner from the University of Chicago. He gave his estimate of what would happen if all countries continue to develop at current rates, for example, basing his projections on China"s continued growth at its 2009 rate of 10.8%. Fogel calculated that if this happens, then China"s annual GDP will reach $123 trillion in 2040. Obviously, this will be the world"s biggest economy but the scale is truly stunning. This is three times more than the entire world produced in 2000, and the annual income of $85,000 per man is double the figure predicted for the European Union for the same year.If this were to happen, the Chinese economy would amount to 40% of the world economy, with the relevant figures for America and the EU being a mere 14% and 5%.
These predictions are much bolder than recent estimates by the Carnegie Endowment, according to which by 2050 the Chinese economy will only be 20% bigger than America"s.